We owe much of our prosperity to the oceans-the easy access to the sea allows the development of trade and economic growth. Shanghai, New York, Hong Kong, London, Sydney, Mumbai, Tokyo, San Francisco and Cape Town are examples of the economic advantages of having a good port.
In contrast, the landlocked countries (such as Kyrgyzstan and the Central African Republic), are poor, falling behind. It is in cities with deepwater ports, with the most fertile soil, which can grow companies, incubators of innovation and economic growth.
It has been said that these cities, our stronger political and economic units, are at risk of increase in the average level of seawater. Until very recently, hidrologistas and climate scientists predicted sea level rises one meter by 2050. These estimates worried leaders in Maldives, but others ignored the economic weight provided increased in Europe or North America.
It is with some surprise that we read that this estimate was too conservative and that the risk of cities is much higher than believed.
Ben Strauss, Climate Central, published a report which analyses the predictions of rising sea levels and the lists with the elevation of American cities. This study is unique by combining data from population and elevation with the research of Anders Levermann, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, concerning the rate of growth (2.3 meters per degree celsius).
This provides that, unless we change our carbon footprint, 315 American cities will be threatened. The forecast of an increase in the levels of carbon dioxide emissions will produce a sufficient heating to increase the oceans in seven metres.
The study of Strauss does not foresee the growth derived from storms, when the oceans near the level of cities reaching roads, sewers and water systems, metros. We can imagine that, one day, the storms will not only cause damage to the coastal cities, but destroy them.
The same States that in 2100, more than 25% of Boston, Miami, New Orleans and Atlantic City will be underwater. Most of the global economy lies in towns that will be submerged. Imagine a world without Shanghai, Mumbai and Boston, a world in which London and New York are the definitions of risk to the markets.
According to data of a publication in Nature Climate Change, global flood losses that, in 2005, were estimated at ⬠6.6 billion per year (in 136 cities), will increase to ⬠52 billion in 2050.
However, if the alarmists predict a rise of seven meters, scientists refer, in the best case, to 20 inches and, at worst, to 100 centimeters.
Given the huge flow of population to migrate to the coastal towns, its economic impact and its anchoring on companies, markets and universities, the submersion of coastal towns becomes an economic problem, social and even moral of utmost importance. We can't lose these economies and societies.
Last year, we witnessed the submergence of Wall Street. Climate change became the center of economic growth in Atlantis. If we want prosperity, warns the Guardian, we must save the coastal towns.
Photo: under Creative Commons license
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