Global warming will lead to an increase in the number of crimes along the century

Global warming will not only enhance the melting of the polar ice caps, flooding more frequently and droughts more severe. A recent study reveals that global warming will also increase the crime rate.

The study was prepared by Matthew Ranson, Economist, who crossed data on the history of crime and temperatures, checking that the warmer weather tends to boost more murders, rapes, robberies and other crimes. "Looking at the past, we see a strong relationship between the temperature and the crimes", indicates the author, quoted by Atlantic Cities. "Everything indicates that it will continue in the future," he adds.

But what the increase in crime rate that should be expected? Using the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ranson has calculated that between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause "22 thousand murders, 180 thousand violations, 1.2 million serious assaults, robberies, 2.3 1.3 million scams, 2.2 million cases of theft by stretching and 580 thousand stealing cars" additional to the normal crime rate. The data are only for the United States, but the principle could be applied to other countries, with different values.

And the reason for higher temperatures stimulate the increase of crimes? According to Ranson, justification varies from crime to crime. The crimes that involve properties, such as theft or fraud, tend to increase with increasing temperature, but decrease when temperatures are mild, more on the order of 10 degrees Celsius. This suggests that cold weather can create obstacles for committing this kind of crimes â€" Windows closed due to the cold, for example.

Also the relationship between violent crime and temperatures is linear â€" as the thermometer rises, also increases the number of crimes. According to the study's author, this pattern supports the idea that "warmer temperatures increase the frequency of social interactions, of which a small percentage result in violence".

There is also another factor that Ranson considers relevant: previous studies indicate that, with the rising temperatures, people tend to become more aggressive.

Foto: Alan Cleaver/Creative Commons

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